Kashmir, Pakistan and US designs
KW File 2003
Opinion, May 2003 Al-Jazeerah.info
Abdul Latif Bhat
A hot debate has generated all over the world that who will be the next target of America Although fingers are being pointed towards Syria, North Korea and Iran and a many high officials of Bush administration have recently issued statements advising these countries categorically to ‘learn the lesson from Iraq’, it can be safely said that America is no hurry to confront with so many countries at one go. Past experiences bear witness the America shifted its attention towards Iraq only after controlling the whole of Afghanistan and handing over power there to its loyals. So it seems impossible for America to get involved in another country till it establishes complete control over Iraq.
9/11 incident came as a safest excuse for America to attack Afghanistan and as the entire world was in a shock (obviously for so many reasons) after attacks, America had a smooth run with no opposition at all. US succeeded in garnering s! upport of the community in the name of ‘War against Terrorism’. But when it came to Iraq, the situation proved otherwise. Although America did everything to involve world community in its war against Iraq, but here its diplomacy failed miserably. And such was the arrogance of power that it went ahead with its plans of attacking Iraq without giving a fig to world opinion.
It was being hoped that world community especially Secretary General of United Nations Mr. Kofi Annan would use his power to prevent USA from going into war but he helplessly remained silent. This silence has made the very institution of UN as very controversial. Although he failed to stop the war but the UN Secretary General has still a role to play and use his powers as world watch-dog. Otherwise this institution would be looked down upon as an extension of US administration. If the Secretary General fails to deliver, he should simply step down and save the prestige of this world body.
In such a si! tuation when the UNO looses its credibility the rule of might is right will prevail which would lead the world to watch another Hiroshima and Nagasaki episode or history of Vietnam will be repeated. UNO’s silence proves a license for America to kill innocent people, brutalise societies and invade countries and this is such a dangerous trend that may have far reaching consequences.
Now no one can guarantee the security of any sovereign independent country. At any time any country would be destroyed within no time by the well equipped mighty powers. USA has given many indication to add Pakistan in the list of ‘axis of evil’ after Syria, North Korea and Iran.
Pakistan is still optimistic that USA would not touch it as being a close ally in its fight against terrorism. America also needs the friendship of Pakistan in the name of war against terrorism till it tackles militarily other countries for which it has already fixed its priorities.
Instead of living in illusion! s as for as American friendship is concerned one should keep in mind the track record of America. It was the same America that used Saddam Hussain again Iran and today paid it the reward of friendship in terms of mass destruction. In the same manner while today it is using Pakistan against Afghanistan, in near future Pakistan too may de dealt with the way Iraq was treated.
Circumstantial evidences prove that USA is not sincere about Pakistan. There are so many reasons behind this theory which can be classified as:
Strategic importance of the geography of Pakistan and Kashmir against the China .
Threat of an Islamic Atomic Country.
To deprive China of a close ally.
To create hurdles between Indo-Pak on the settlement of Kashmir with the aim;
a) It could easily interfere in the Kashmir issue,
and, b) Continuation of tension between Indo-Pak.
To strengthen the friendship between Israel and India with the aim :
a) To distance India from Russia and Chi! na and to hinder Sino-Indo-Russia alliance
and, c) To use Indo-Israel co-ordination as a threat against Pakistan while remaining itself neutral.
Pakistan is perhaps analyzing that America has no reason to target it. No compromise on Nuclear capability is necessary for Pakistan with the aim to keep the balance in the region. If USA would any how pressurize Pakistan in this regard, then Pakistan’s demand should be to include India too in the same category followed by an assurance of solution to Kashmir problem. The question arises whether USA would play its neutral role in helping solve the Kashmir issue. So for, there is no indication on behalf of USA in this regard. On one side USA has to defend its own interests in Kashmir and on the other it needs Pakistan separated from China. So game will revolve around solution of Kashmir based on division which would provide a chance to interfere into the matter.
Since the U.S. needs to keep both the sub-continental adversarie! s – India and Pakistan – on its side in the emerging challenge to its supremacy from China, Russia and what Donald Rumsfield described as Old Europe, it would promote a solution of Kashmir on formalizing the present partition. That way it will achieve its strategic objectives without intervening in the dispute militarily.
It is now obvious after the wars waged against Afghanistan and Iraq that the America can manipulate reasons to attack any country it wishes. Time has proved that both the wars were not restricted for what purpose these were started instead had a bigger agenda of realising American own interests in terms of political, strategic, diplomatic and economical fields. On diplomatic front America will always propagate that its objective is in the interest of peace and security of that region.
Justification of Afghan War
It is true that soon after the incident of 9/11 America got a chance to attack Afghanistan . But it goes without s! aying that even before the 9/11 it was already making ground to interfere in Afghanistan while demanding the extradition of Usama Bin Laden, restoration of democracy and closing of Jihadi training centres. Cruise missile attack on one of the camps in the tenure of Bill Clinton indicated that America was on its way to target Afghanistan. 9/11 made easy way for it to jump into the fray.
Justification of Iraq War
To destroy Weapons of Mass destruction
To destroy Chemical weapons
To end Dictatorship
To do away with Saddam-Usama nexus
Now in case America attacks Pakistan or interferes in Kashmir, what would be its justification in this regard. Let we analyse it in the light of Afghanistan and Iraq:
Likely Justification to attack Pakistan
To destroy Chemical weapons.
To target Islamic fundamentalists.
To target training camps of Jihadis and end cross border terrorism.
Likely Justification ! to interfere in Kashmir
Restoration of peace in Kashmir
Blaming India Pak for the failure in solving the Kashmir
India would be provoked to attack the AJK and America would interfere to restore peace.
It is very difficult for Pakistan to clear the clouds of war. Yesterday it forced India to avoid confrontation after banning Lashkar and Jiash. Today India’s war threat is again looming on Pakistan. And America will also justify its attack.
Pakistan Information Minister was right when he said that Pakistan has also a right to attack India as pre-emptive measure because it is being again and again threatened.
And now the clear-cut sanctions imposed on KRL and the blame of getting the missile technology in exchange of nuclear capability are the signals from America which indicate America’s intentions.
Pakistan should get prepared and formalize the war strategy in advance against any aggression. American war strategy has been exposed in Afghanista! n and Iraq. Let us analyse these two wars to find out what can be lessons to be extracted.
War Strategy adopted in Afghanistan and Iraq
Involement of British and other countries.
Involement of a close neighbor for use of Air Strikes and Logistics (Pakistan in Afghanistan and Jordan in Iraq).
Activating Naval HQ’s from Arabian sea
Air and land of Arabian countries
Making efforts to support and strengthen anti-regime elements in Pakistan like Northern Alliance against Talibans and Kurds and other opposition leaders against Saddam, and then propagating that America is fighting for the liberation of these people.
Use of Mass Destruction bombardment jets.
Couping the small villages and towns and crushing the armed resistance.
Propagating at high scale while attaching correspondents of two main TV channels BBC and CNN at several war points.
Likely War Strategy against Pakistan
Usage! of modern technology in pattern of Afghanistan and Iraq.
To strengthen the anti-national and separatists in pattern of Northern Alliance and Kurds and other opposition leadership. Also giving twist to infighting on religious and ethnic basis.
Using the territories of Afghanistan and Iraq in case Arab countries does not support war against Pakistan.
Likely War Strategy against Kashmir
Applying diplomatic efforts
To deploy the troops for monitoring LOC
To deploy the troops for changing the LOC into International border
To create uprising of the anti -Pakistan elements and in this context supporting the leaders like Hashim Quraishi who want to end the violence and involving other leaders like Mufti Sayeed and other anti-struggle elements.
Involvement of The Kashmir Study Group (KSG), working with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington with a key role to the Kashmiri based American Farooq Kathwari,! chairman of KSG as they have recently emphasized the need to uplift the economy, health and educational facilities of the Kashmir region which have been devastated due to the conflict.
Seperating Ladakh and Jammu on the basis of religion
Giving importance to the rights of 3 % Kashmiri Hindus better known as pandits.
In perspective of Afghanistan and Iraq war defending the regional interests by changing the Kashmir into Geneva Model Diplomatic Centre.
Keeping in view the above analysis one can not trust today’s America who tore into pieces the international restrictions with the aim to coup the reserves of oil and gas in Iraq. How can one be resting hopes one who is considering the blood of human beings cheaper than oil. If it can interfere in Eastern Timor why it is not doing so in Kashmir then treating badly to Kashmiris. One can here doubt that there should be some secret understanding between India and America so that they can entrap Pakistan.
It was Amer! ica that supported India by providing Spy Satellite pictures of the deployment and positions of troops during the Kargil war.
The other countries like China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and Syria should also analyse the USA’s war strategy as they are facing the same threat.
To sideline America from interfering into the Kashmir issue, need of the hour is to establish some other institutions other than Kashmir American Council like Kashmir Arab Council, Kashmir China Council and Kashmir Europe Council etc.
The writer is Kashmiri Analyst who can be reached at email@example.com
The article appeared in Kashmir Images (Srinagar) on 24 April 2003