-Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal
Great Britain has voted to leave the European Union. The country is set to leave the bloc by the end of March 2019. British Prime Minister Theresa May offered an agreement on residency for the citizens of the EU countries as well as employment rights in the country. British and EU negotiators officially started Brexit talks.
EU will have a summit on October 24 – 26 at Dublin. Brussels’ attempts in getting a quick Brexit is probably of no use. The Brexit negotiations, which started last year, will be the ghost at the feast of the two-day European Union summit that opens in Brussels: ever-present, looming over all the decisions, but not officially on the agenda. Europe’s leaders are divided over how to negotiate Brexit and reports say that the U.K. is apparently reluctant to initiate formal talks on leaving. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi called Brexit a “great opportunity” for Europe. “More growth and more investment, less austerity and less bureaucracy, this is the line we have proposed for two years, at the beginning in isolation,” Renzi said.
The EU may refuse to hold informal talks with the U.K regarding Brexit till the country officially triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the procedure that governs how a member state leaves the bloc. There are two ways it can be triggered. The first is by the head of the country in question sending a formal letter to the President of the European Council, and the second by formally stating so during a Council session. Finland’s ex-Prime Minister Alexander Stubb advised the EU not to push Britain too fast into invoking article 50.
The UK will not be able to conclude a trade deal with the EU until it has left the union. European Council’s President Donald Tusk even appointed Didier Seeuws to lead a “Brexit taskforce” of EU negotiators. The European Union would try to show a united front during the summit considering many countries are toying with the idea of holding similar referendums.
Last Brussels summit marked the debut on the EU stage of French President Emmanuel Macron. On the eve of the summit, Macron reaffirmed his belief in a Europe capable of transforming the world with France as a driving force. In the face of the threats of extremism, inequality and authoritarian regimes, it is up to the European Union to “win the battle” for “freedom and democracy… to ensure social justice and preserving the climate of our planet,” Macron said
Brexit will be the main theme, however, of the series of bilateral meetings with his fellow leaders that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, attending his first summit, will be having. He has already spoken to the new French president, Emmanuel Macron, and to Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, and has met the British Prime Minister, Theresa May. Varadkar will meet the European Council president, Donald Tusk, at Thursday morning’s meeting of the leaders of the centrist European People’s Party, and officials expect him to have a series of other encounters on the fringes of the summit.
EU leaders are considering going some way to meet one of the UK’s demands, signaling a minor breakthrough in Brexit talks after three months of scant progress. While the European Parliament will call on leaders not to move talks on to the crucial trade deal at a summit next month, according to a draft resolution, European leaders are considering bringing forward talks on the transition period that will follow Brexit, according to people familiar with the situation.
The concession from the EU, while minor, would break the deadlock and make it easier for the UK to discuss the contentious divorce bill. It would also be a sign that Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech last week in Florence, where she pledged to continue paying into the EU’s budget for two years after leaving, hit some of the notes her European counterparts were hoping for.
At the dinner Theresa May will get her only chance to present an assessment of where the talks may be heading in the wake of the UK election. At the dinner, after discussions of the leaders’ recent encounters with the presidents of the United States, Donald Trump, and Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan – which may not do much for their digestion – May will get her only chance to present an assessment of where the talks may be heading in the wake of the British general election. She is expected to use the opportunity to outline for the first time the United Kingdom’s position on the rights of UK and EU citizens residing in each others’ territories after Brexit. The issue is one of the three priority discussions for the Brexit negotiations in the preliminary “divorce” talks.
After dinner, perhaps as a pousse-café, the 27 other leaders will meet without May to discuss a contentious but now agreed methodology for deciding where the plum prizes of the UK-based EU institutions will be relocated. Ireland has a particular interest in the European Medicines Agency, but there is fierce competition for that and for the European Banking Authority.
Brussels rumours, fiercely denied, suggest that the French and Germans have already carved out a deal for them, but some 20 bids are expected for the two agencies, and an elaborate mechanism has been devised to decide where they will go.
In the end, this autumn, each member state will get one vote on each agency – but only after the European Commission has “objectively assessed” the merits of each proposed new home in terms of infrastructure and other capacities. The eastern Europeans have lobbied, apparently unsuccessfully, for “objective criteria” such as geographical spread and “value for money” (an ability to pay lower wages) to be included. An Irish official insists that “we have nothing to fear from an objective assessment”.
The real meat of the summit, however, will be important discussions about enhancing defence co-operation in the face of terrorism and external threats, and a debate on jobs and growth that will focus on trade issues. The leaders will agree on “the need to launch ambitious and inclusive permanent structured co-operation” on defence, putting flesh on treaty provisions that allow for the union, or subgroups of it, to organize a range of military tasks together – anything from enforcing peace to sharing weapons research.
Ireland has been among the states to emphasize “inclusivity”, making clear that it sees itself as a likely part of any group of willing states and that it does not want to see the emergence of two-speed defence co-operation. If two speeds emerge we want to be with the advance guard.
There will be strong encouragement to justice ministers to step up co-operation and information sharing over foreign fighters and those returning from Syria.
Although the EU leaders will certainly endorse a strong declaration in favour of trade and condemning protectionism, they will come under pressure – likely to be unsuccessful – from some states to strengthen their “trade defence instruments” to allow states to prevent what some, including the Germans and French, see as dangerous takeovers by Chinese business of strategic businesses in Europe.
With just 18 months to go before it leaves the club, the UK needs to get the terms of the transition agreed in order to mitigate the uncertainty facing businesses, some of which are already relocating.
Ms May said in Florence she wants a two-year transition during which trading terms remain unchanged. The quid pro quo is that the UK must accept all of the EU’s rules while losing any say in how they are made. The concession on transition would happen at the EU summit in October, where leaders may discuss changing the mandate of chief negotiator Michel Barnier to allow him to talk about the bridging arrangements alongside the divorce, according to the people. EU member governments are also considering whether to add language in their summit statement that assures the UK they are likely to accept a transition period, one of the people said. Initially, Barnier insisted that transition could only be discussed after the separation terms and the outline of the future trade relationship were agreed. He signaled on Monday that his mandate could be revised, but it would be up to EU leaders.
NATO directory guides the EU. Earlier in July 2016, Brexit and Russia dominated a NATO summit wherein uncertainty Brexit continued to worry EU leaders. The uncertainty over Britain, a key nuclear-armed ally, comes as NATO prepares to endorse its biggest revamp since the end of the Cold War in response to Russia’s 2014 intervention in Ukraine. The summit centerpiece is a “Readiness Action Plan” to bolster Nato resources and readiness in the face of a Russia under President Vladimir Putin that the allies now see as more aggressive and dangerously unpredictable. Nato leaders approved rotating four battalions in eastern Europe — in Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, up to 4,000 troops in all, as a collective tripwire against fresh Russian adventurism.
Russia has said it will examine closely what is decided at the summit for how it affects its security. Moscow bitterly opposes Nato’s expansion into its Soviet-era satellites, which it sees as a threat to its own security. It is even more strident in its opposition to the Ballistic Missile Defence system the United States is building and which the summit is due to declare has reached an initial operating level. Washington says the shield is designed to counter missile threats from Iran or the Middle East but Russia says that once the system becomes fully operational in 2018, it will undercut its strategic nuclear deterrent.
Separately Russia warned that the US deployment of an advanced missile defence system in South Korea would have “irreparable consequences”, echoing warnings by China. The NATO leaders will discuss the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan where Obama on Wednesday said he would keep 8,400 troops into next year to tackle the Taliban. The summit meanwhile will also approve a Nato-EU cooperation accord, laying out how the alliance — which includes 22 of the 28 EU member states — can work with the EU.